In a note to clients, Hatzius says that while “much can still go wrong and our probability that a (mild) recession will start in the next year remains about one in three, we see some encouraging signs that the economy is moving toward” a soft landing. To achieve that, he reiterated that the U.S. would need to see a large decline in inflation, “sustained below-trend output growth,” and a small rise in unemployment coupled with sharply lower job openings.

Read the full article from MarketWatch.